Material existing and emerging risks to the Bank’s future performance
The Bank has identified a broad range of risks to which its businesses are exposed. Material risks are those to which senior management
pay particular attention and which could cause the delivery of the Bank’s strategy, results of operations, financial condition and/or
prospects to differ materially from expectations. Emerging risks are those which have unknown components, the impact of which could
crystallise over a longer time period. In addition, certain other factors beyond the Bank’s control, including escalation of terrorism or global
conflicts, natural disasters, pandemics and similar events, although not detailed below, could have a similar impact on the Bank.
Material existing and emerging risks potentially impacting more than one principal risk
i)Risks relating to the impact of COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic has had, and continues to have, a material impact on businesses around the world and the economic
environments in which they operate. Additionally, the impacts of the economic downturn resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and post-
recovery environment, from a commercial, regulatory and risk perspective, could be significantly different to past crises and persist for a
prolonged period. As a result, there are a number of factors associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on global economies
that have had and could continue to have a material adverse effect on the profitability, capital and liquidity of the Bank.
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused disruption to the Bank’s customers, suppliers and staff. Most jurisdictions in which the Bank operates
implemented severe restrictions on the movement of their respective populations, with a resultant significant impact on economic activity
in those jurisdictions. While a number of restrictions have been eased with the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccination programmes, others still
remain in place and future developments are highly uncertain. In some jurisdictions, restrictions that had been previously lifted were re-
imposed in response to a resurgence in cases. These decisions are being taken by the governments of individual jurisdictions (including
through the implementation of emergency powers) and impacts (including any subsequent lifting, extension or reimposition of
restrictions) may vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction and/or within jurisdictions. It remains unclear how the COVID-19 pandemic will
evolve through 2022 (including whether there will be further waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, whether COVID-19 vaccines continue to
prove effective, whether further new strains of COVID-19 will emerge and whether, and in what manner, additional restrictions will be
imposed and/or existing restrictions extended) and the Bank continues to monitor the situation closely. However, despite the COVID-19
contingency plans established by the Bank, the ability to conduct business may be adversely affected by disruptions to infrastructure and
supply chains, business processes and technology services, resulting from the unavailability of staff due to illness or the failure of third
parties to supply services. This may cause significant customer detriment, costs to reimburse losses incurred by the Bank’s customers,
potential litigation costs (including regulatory fines, penalties and other sanctions), and reputational damage.
In many of the jurisdictions in which the Bank operates, schemes were initiated by central banks, national governments and regulators to
provide financial support to parts of the economy most impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The rapid introduction and varying nature of
these support schemes, as well as customer expectations, required the Bank to implement large-scale changes in a short period of time,
leading to an increase in certain risks faced by the Bank, including operational risk, conduct risk, reputation risk and fraud risk. These risks
are likely to be heightened further as and when those government and other support schemes expire, are withdrawn or are no longer
supported. Furthermore, the impact from participating in government and central bank-supported loan and other financing schemes may
be exacerbated if the Bank is required by any government or regulator to offer forbearance or additional financial relief to borrowers or if
the Bank is unable to rely on guarantees provided by governments in connection with financial support schemes.
As these schemes and other financial support schemes provided by national governments (such as job retention and furlough schemes,
payment deferrals and mass lending schemes) expire, are withdrawn or are no longer supported, there is a risk that economic growth and
employment may be negatively impacted which may, in turn, impact the Bank’s results of operations and profitability. In addition, the Bank
may experience a higher volume of defaults and delinquencies in certain portfolios which may negatively impact the Bank’s RWAs, level of
impairment and, in turn, capital position, and may initiate collection and enforcement actions to recover defaulted debts. The inception of
large scale collections and recovery programmes (including the use of third party debt collection agents) may also create significant risk if
(because of the complexity, speed and scale of these programmes) defaulting borrowers are harmed by the Bank’s conduct which may also
give rise to civil legal proceedings, including class actions, regulatory censure, potentially significant fines and other sanctions, and
reputational damage. Other legal disputes may also arise between the Bank and defaulting borrowers relating to matters such as breaches
or enforcement of legal rights or obligations arising under loan and other credit agreements. Adverse findings in any such matters may
result in the Bank’s rights not being enforced as intended.
Changes in macroeconomic variables such as gross domestic product (‘GDP’) and unemployment have a significant impact on the
modelling of ECLs by the Bank. As a result, the Bank experienced higher ECLs in 2020 compared to prior periods, though this trend was
reversed in 2021 as economic conditions partially recovered. The economic environment remains uncertain and future impairment charges
may be subject to further volatility (including from changes to macroeconomic variable forecasts) depending on the longevity of the
COVID-19 pandemic and related containment measures and the continued efficacy of any COVID-19 vaccines, as well as the longer term
effectiveness of central bank, government and other support measures. For further details on macroeconomic variables used in the
calculation of ECLs, refer to the credit risk performance section. In addition, ECLs may be adversely impacted by increased levels of default
for single name exposures in certain sectors directly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Furthermore, the Bank relies on models to support a broad range of business and risk management activities, including informing business
decisions and strategies, measuring and limiting risk, valuing exposures (including the calculation of impairment), conducting stress testing
and assessing capital adequacy. Models are, by their nature, imperfect and incomplete representations of reality because they rely on
assumptions and inputs, and so they may be subject to errors affecting the accuracy of their outputs and/or misused. This may be
exacerbated when dealing with unprecedented scenarios, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, due to the lack of reliable historical reference
points and data. For further details on model risk, refer to ‘vi) Model risk’ below.