In 2024, the price of cocoa, the key ingredient in chocolate, surged, with increases of up to 300 per cent mark. It hit an all-time high in December 2024, when the price of cocoa beans hit $12,000 per metric ton; $10,000 higher than the cost in 2022. Prices have come down since then, but they still sit at around $6,000 per metric ton.

Over two-thirds of the world’s raw cacao beans come from West Africa, and, over the last year, bad weather and diseased crops in the Ivory Coast and Ghana have led to record supply shortfalls. Crop shortages have also been seen in Nigeria and Indonesia, the third and fourth largest cocoa producers. According to management firm, GEP, all in all, global cocoa production fell by about 14 percent in the 2023-2024 season, pushing prices up as a consequence. 

The result has been a spike in cost that no supplier or retailer – no matter how big – could afford to swallow. And, with demand for chocolate increasing by three per cent by year, and a shortfall also predicted in 2025, it won't be the last conundrum the industry faces. 

Chocolate manufacturers and retailers can absorb some of the costs of cocoa beans. However, the increases seen over the last year are inevitably going to impact their bottom line. That leaves them with three unpalatable options. Do they push prices up? Do they cut the cocoa content in products, thereby reducing how much they spend on raw materials? Do they keep the price the same and shrink product sizes instead? If you look across the industry, different businesses have made different, yet equally difficult choices.

Speaking about this, Karen Johnson, Head of Retail at Barclays, said: “Rising costs and supply disruption have affected retailers in all sectors in recent years, but the impact has been particularly acute for anyone who uses cocoa in their products. Faced with a choice of pushing prices up, decreasing quality or shrinking product sizes, retailers and manufacturers are truly in a no-win situation.”

Those who have been forced to put prices up can take some comfort in the market for chocolate and sweet treats, which has been one of the UK economy’s recent success stories.

Barclays’ Consumer Spend research shows consumers’ confidence in their ability to purchase non-essential items has remained resilient. The figure has never fallen below 40 per cent among UK consumers, even during the Covid-19 pandemic, and it reached 58 per cent in March 2025.

The non-essential category covers goods and services that are not needed to maintain basic living standards, and it typically refers to expenses like travel, entertainment, health, and beauty.  The explosion of cafes and luxury chocolatiers suggests that if something is a real treat, then consumers are prepared to find the money for it, and justify spending on it.

There are now Easter Eggs, and chocolate treats, available at almost every price range. Artisan chocolatiers and department stores sell eggs for anywhere between £50 and £150, and supermarket ranges now span from the most basic eggs, which can be picked up for under £2, right up to luxury eggs in the £20-£30 range. 

While many consumers will baulk at these prices, the continual roll out of dessert cafes and expansion of luxury bakeries across the UK suggests that there is a growing market for crafted treats.

On this, Johnson added: “We’ve seen over the past two years that careful consumers are prepared to monitor their essential spending to make sure they can afford the things they really want. Retailers can take comfort from the fact that even if they are forced to raise their own prices, the UK’s taste for treats – as an affordable luxury – only continues to grow.”