Unsurprisingly, the impact of tariffs and the resulting global trade uncertainty, is weighing heavily on the minds of UK business leaders. 79% of those surveyed named the impact of tariffs as a concern, and they are already reacting, with nearly half (48%) saying that they are already adjusting their US operations or supply chains.

As well as this, a number of businesses are rethinking their US presence, with 14% of leaders reporting that they are scaling down across the pond and 15% pausing or reducing investment in the market. 

Despite, this UK businesses remain confident about their own prosperity, with 86 per cent saying they feel confident about their own prospects over the next three to five years. 

While worries about US tariffs are universal, when asked to calculate whether tariffs will have a positive or negative impact on profits and exports, it seems that the bigger the size of the business, the happier they are feeling.

Almost half (49%) of the leaders of large businesses, those with 250 employees or more, said that they expected US tariffs to deliver a positive impact on their exports and profits. By contrast, only 30% of large businesses said they were anticipating a negative impact on exports, and 39% said they were expecting US tariffs to negatively impact profits.

Mid-sized businesses, those with more than 50 employees, are also feeling positive, with 43% saying that they are hopeful about what effect tariffs will have on their profits and exports. Both large and mid-sized businesses are anticipating that tariffs will drive up customer demand, with 49% and 48% of respondents respectively saying that were expecting a positive effect on demand.

Speaking about this, Matt Hammerstein, Chief Executive of Barclays UK Corporate Banking, said: “Given the widespread uncertainty in the international trade environment, it’s unsurprising that businesses are taking proactive steps to adapt to these global pressures. A strong international trade strategy, and revised supply chain considerations, can turn geopolitical uncertainty into a competitive advantage and many larger firms are already adapting to build diverse global trade to develop resilience.”

Even for smaller businesses (10-49 employees), there is some light to be found, with more leaders saying they feel the impact of US tariffs will be positive for their profit at 36%, versus 34% who expect it to have a negative impact. 

It is only among micro-sized businesses, those who employ fewer than 10 people, where the outlook is decidedly gloomier  Only 5% of leaders with a micro business feel positive about the effect tariffs could have on their firm, and only 4% believe it could help their profit margins. 

In general, while the majority of UK businesses still expect a negative impact from the US tariffs, with 37% naming as a concern going forward. But, when asked to assess prospects for export volume, profit margins, customer demand, supply chain stability and overall business prospects in the wake of US tariffs, more business leaders are feeling positive about their impact than are feeling negative. 

As well as repivoting their US operations and adjusting supply chains accordingly, the new research suggest that action was taken before tariffs were implemented on April 2.

From those surveyed, 59% reported that they have increased trade with Europe and Central Asia the first quarter of 2025. That is way ahead of North America, where just 18% reported increasing trade, with 10% saying that they had increased trade with the Asia-Pacific region. These figures sit in the overall context of 44% of business leaders saying that they have increased international trade in the first three months of 2025. 

With the impact of tariffs and the resulting global trade uncertainty weighing on the minds of business leaders, many are now looking inward.

Looking ahead to the rest of 2025, 89% per cent of respondents said that they are planning to take steps to improve the productivity of their workforce, while 46% said that a drive for productivity is now more important than it was a year ago. In doing this, 34% are planning to upskill employees through training and 32% are targeting improving efficiencies.

Speaking about this, Hannah Bernard, Head of Barclays Business Banking, said: “Productivity gains are seen as vital to help offset the increasing cost pressures on businesses. Businesses are also identifying key areas for investment and with interest rates coming down coupled with this increasing proactivity in international trade, there are positive signs for reducing barriers to investment.”