Barclays Launches 65th Edition of the Equity Gilt Study

Combining market-leading macro analysis with a unique multi-asset dataset spanning over 100 years, the Barclays Equity Gilt Study 2020 is an indispensable tool for putting the post-COVID world in context.

Wednesday 08 July 2020 – Barclays Research today released the Equity Gilt Study 2020 (EGS). The 65th edition of this flagship Barclays report delves into the long-term changes wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic and the extraordinary shocks it has delivered in both developed and emerging markets.

Jeff Meli, Global Head of Research at Barclays said:

“In this year’s Equity Gilt Study we analyze how the unparalleled disruption caused by COVID-19 stands to transform the macro landscape. We look at how the pandemic is reversing several decade-long trends, from globalization to international mobility; accelerating others, such as self-reliance and sustainability; and exacerbating issues, from debt management in developed countries, to structural vulnerabilities in emerging markets.”

Across five in-depth chapters, Barclays analysts focus on what the post-pandemic world will look like, including:

1. ‘The post-COVID economy’ which analyses how the unprecedented disruption caused by COVID-19 is likely to lead to long-term shifts in consumer behaviour, corporate decision-making and government policy. This chapter considers how, as de-globalisation trends accelerate, cost-efficiency and frictionless movement of goods and people could give way to safety, self-reliance and sustainability.

2. ‘DM debt: Pulling all the levers’ evaluates the debt management consequences that the West will grapple with in the aftermath of the policy measures that governments took to cushion the COVID-19 shock. Policy choices in the years ahead range from overt debt reduction policies, such as austerity and taxation, to covert ones, such as financial repression and inflation.

3. ‘Diminishing defenses in Emerging Markets’ considers the economic and social challenges facing EM from the COVID-19 shock, and the long-term effects on EM assets and risk. The pandemic should exacerbate existing EM structural vulnerabilities, and create new ones. This will cause EM economies to suffer disproportionately from accelerated de-globalisation and reduced international mobility, even after the near-term shock from the pandemic has faded.

4. ‘Reinvigorating US labor force participation’ explains why a labor force participation rate (LFPR) rebound is needed for the US to have a chance at returning to its pre-COVID “goldilocks” economy of low inflation and full employment.

5. ‘Managing uncertainty’ considers why uncertainty is different from other types of risk and how it effects markets. It also offers a five-step plan for managing market uncertainty.

Notes to Editors:

• In publication since 1956, the Equity Gilt Study provides data, analysis and commentary on long-term asset returns in the UK and US. In addition to the macro discussions, this publication contains a uniquely long and consistent database:
  - The UK data goes back to 1899
  - The US data, provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices at the University of Chicago, dates back to 1925

About Barclays:

Barclays is a British universal bank. We are diversified by business, by different types of customer and client, and geography. Our businesses include consumer banking and payments operations around the world, as well as a top-tier, full service, global corporate and investment bank, all of which are supported by our service company which provides technology, operations and functional services across the Group. Barclays offers investment banking products and services in the US through Barclays Capital Inc. For further information about Barclays, please visit our website home.barclays.