Barclays Research Examines How War and Extreme Weather Are Exacerbating Food Insecurity

A new Barclays Impact Series report raises concerns about rising food protectionism, which could hamper efforts to improve food security.

London, 10 January 2023 - Barclays today released the 10th edition of its Impact Series, entitled “Global food systems under mounting pressure.” The research report examines how the war in Ukraine, coupled with extreme weather events, is threatening food security globally.

“With extreme weather events coinciding with trade restrictions and conflict, years of positive progress in reducing hunger and poverty are being rapidly reversed,” says Hiral Patel, Global Head of Sustainable and Thematic Research. “The war in Ukraine shows how a localised shock can cascade through international supply chains.”

Barclays’ Impact Series uses data-driven analysis to explore the social impact of economic, demographic and disruptive changes affecting markets, sectors and society at large. The key findings of today’s report include:

• Despite having eased off the highs reached early last year, food prices are likely to stay high, leading to shortages in the most vulnerable countries reliant on imported food.
• Rising food insecurity will likely lead to social unrest and increased migration from the poorest parts of the world.
• Record temperatures and prolonged droughts will lead to reduced crop yields in many regions, adding to pressures on food production and distribution caused by the war.
• Increased trade protectionism related to food will only exacerbate the situation as more than 40% of the world's calorie intake currently comes from three crops produced in a handful of countries.

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