Barclays Business Prosperity research reveals tariff opportunities despite widespread concern about global trade uncertainty

Barclays Business Prosperity research reveals that despite widespread concerns over new US tariffs, UK businesses — particularly larger firms — are adapting and predict a net positive impact on exports, supply chains and profits.

Conducted between 12-22 May, the survey¹ of 1000 UK micro, small, medium and large businesses found:

• The majority (79 per cent) are concerned about tariffs and global trade uncertainty and nearly half already adjusting US operations or supply chains
• Despite concerns, many expect positive effects on profit margins, customer demand, export volumes and supply chain stability
• Data suggests action was taken before tariffs were implemented on 2 April, with 59 per cent of those who have increased trade doing so with Europe and Central Asia in Q1 2025 – compared to North America (18 per cent) and Asia-Pacific (10 per cent)
• Almost half say improving productivity is now more important now than a year ago, with 72 per cent finding hiring difficulties are holding back growth

UK businesses remain confident about their own prosperity (86 per cent over the next three-five years), despite widespread concern about tariffs and global trade uncertainty (79 per cent).

This uncertainty has resulted in UK firms taking proactive steps to diversify international trade and build resilient supply chains, whilst looking to benefit from potential upsides to tariffs.

Nearly half (48 per cent) are already adjusting their US operations or supply chains, with 14 per cent scaling down and 15 per cent pausing or reducing investment in the market.

Additionally, 59 per cent of businesses who increased trade didn’t wait for tariffs to come into effect and reported doing so with Europe and Central Asia in the last 12 months – far outpacing growth in North America (18 per cent) and Asia-Pacific (10 per cent). Almost half of businesses (44 per cent) increased international trade over the past 12 months.

However, despite the concerns, many businesses expect the potential upsides from US tariffs to outweigh the negatives on profit margins (36 per cent), customer demand (37 per cent), export volumes (34 per cent) and supply chain stability (34 per cent). Yet in general, the majority of UK businesses (37 per cent) still expect a negative impact from the US tariffs on their overall prospects.

Impact of tariffs on trade

Matt Hammerstein, Chief Executive of Barclays UK Corporate Banking, said: “Given the widespread uncertainty in the international trade environment, it’s unsurprising that businesses are taking proactive steps to adapt to these global pressures. A strong international trade strategy, and revised supply chain considerations, can turn geopolitical uncertainty into a competitive advantage and many larger firms are already adapting to build diverse global trade to develop resilience.”

Productivity is a top priority for UK businesses

The current economic climate is also driving action on productivity, with 46 per cent of UK businesses claiming improving productivity is more important now than a year ago. This comes amid a backdrop of 72 per cent of businesses finding difficulties in hiring skilled labour, which they attribute to holding back growth.

The majority (89 per cent) of businesses are planning to take steps to improve the productivity of their workforce, prioritising investing in upskilling employees through training (34 per cent) and streamlining processes and improving efficiency (32 per cent).

Intent to invest remains despite uncertainty

Investment plans reflect the ongoing focus on boosting productivity, with nearly half of businesses (46 per cent) intending to invest in staff training and development. Meanwhile 39 per cent will prioritise innovation and new product development and 35 per cent plan to invest in digital transformation.

Business investment in physical assets also remains strong, with 35 per cent of firms aiming to purchase new or upgraded equipment, machinery, or vehicles, and 33 per cent planning new or expanded facilities.

Global uncertainty is impacting business uptake of debt finance for investment, with close to four in five (79 per cent) not borrowing to invest over the last 12 months. Of those who considered borrowing to invest but did not go ahead, 48 per cent cited economic uncertainty or awaiting a better environment for choosing not to. Over a third (34 per cent) cited high interest rates as the main barrier to borrowing.

However fewer than one in 10 (9 per cent) expect to hold back on investment altogether in the coming year, suggesting an intent to invest remains.

Hannah Bernard, Head of Barclays Business Banking, said: “Productivity gains are seen as vital to help offset the increasing cost pressures on businesses. The focus on upskilling staff through training and development is a positive way for firms to combat skilled labour challenges, alongside efficiencies from digital transformation through emerging technologies such as AI.”

“Businesses are also identifying key areas for investment and with interest rates coming down coupled with this increasing proactivity in international trade, there are positive signs for reducing barriers to investment.” 

To support business to invest for growth, The Barclays Business Prosperity Fund is available for new and existing Business Banking customers and UK Corporate Banking clients across the UK to apply for lending and refinancing on existing projects. Businesses can find out more at: home.barclays/businessprosperity.

£22bn is the total amount of lending Barclays has available to lend and support business growth among Business Banking and UK Corporate Banking clients in 2025. Subject to normal lending assessment, status and application. Terms and conditions apply.

Notes to editors

For more information please contact: harry.neicho@barclays.com

Barclays Business Prosperity Research¹

This research is conducted as part of the Barclays Business Prosperity campaign. In November 2024 Barclays launched the Business Prosperity Index – a trackable measure of business performance and future growth – with economic modelling produced in partnership with the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr).

This research is from the Barclays Business Prosperity Index survey. The wider Index comprises both the survey data and proprietary Barclays data. The wider Index report will follow separately.

The survey data was conducted among 1,000 business decision makers, between 12^th – 22^nd May 2025, looking back on Q1 and ahead to the future, by Opinium Research on behalf of Barclays.

The businesses represented in both surveys include micros (1-9 employees), small businesses (10-49 employees), medium businesses (50-249 employees), and large businesses (250+ employees) representative across sectors, and regions of the UK. 

About Barclays

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